Why Oburu Odinga’s ODM Bid Is Widely Seen as a Move to Checkmate Edwin Sifuna

Written By: *Al Musasia*

Oburu Odinga’s declaration of interest in the presidency on the Orange Democratic Movement (Orange Democratic Movement) ticket has ignited a fierce debate within opposition politics, not because of the ambition itself, but because of its timing and underlying intent.

For months, senior ODM voices and influential party bloggers openly stated that the party had not settled on a presidential flagbearer. That vacuum created space for organic debate, reformist energy, and critically, the emergence of alternative leadership. It is within this context that Oburu’s sudden entry is being interpreted by many as less about competition and more about containment.

*Insiders and observers alike point to one name: Edwin Sifuna.*

As ODM Secretary-General, Sifuna has steadily built national appeals, especially among urban voters, professionals, Gen Z, and reform-minded party members. His combative clarity in Parliament, disciplined messaging, and growing grassroots resonance have positioned him as a credible future presidential contender, whether declared or not. That rising profile appears to have unsettled both internal power brokers and external political interests.

Against that backdrop, Oburu Odinga’s move is widely viewed as a tactical “early claim” on the ODM ticket, designed to freeze out other aspirants before momentum can translate into formal bids. In practical terms, the strategy signals: ODM already has a candidate, effectively discouraging internal challengers without confronting them directly.

While Oburu is constitutionally and politically entitled to contest, the optics suggest a coordinated effort to pre-empt competition rather than invite it. Critics argue that this mirrors a familiar pattern in Kenyan politics, where establishment figures step forward not to win outright, but to block the emergence of reformist alternatives within their own parties.

What makes this moment particularly consequential is the broader political chessboard. Sifuna’s growing influence is increasingly perceived as a threat beyond ODM, sending visible tremors through the ruling Kenya Kwanza establishment. His ability to articulate opposition politics with precision, mobilize youthful constituencies, and challenge state power without ambiguity has made him one of the most formidable opposition figures of his generation.

In that sense, Oburu Odinga’s candidacy is not just an internal ODM affair, it is a symptom of wider anxiety about a new political force that refuses to play by old rules.

Whether this maneuver succeeds or backfires remains to be seen. History suggests that attempts to suppress popular political momentum often amplify it instead. And if anything, the perception that Edwin Sifuna is being deliberately boxed out may only reinforce his standing as the opposition figure the establishment fears most.

In politics, nothing validates a leader like the effort expended to stop them.