A common joke that’s used to emphasise Raila’s prediction ability says that, if Baba tells you your wife is pregnant, start saving for diapers. This time, however, he might have very well decided to peg his reputation and ability, on a very risky prophecy that he just made, and even put a timer on it; 72 hours.
During a function in Ndhiwa, Homa Bay county, the former Prime Minister and ODM leader made quite a daring and brave statement that now has both friends and foes waiting impatiently with their timers to either applaud him for his spot on prediction, or laugh at him for getting it so wrong.
Raila, over the weekend, said that by Tuesday midnight, and past the working hours of County Assemblies, 13 more counties will have passed the proposals contained in the Constitutional Amendment Bill 2020 which is currently being debated in the County Assemblies, and which will, after this, move on to the National Assembly, and afterwards, to a referendum, to be presented to the people for a vote. This was on Saturday, and this gave it a 72 hour timeline. By the end of today, it will be only 24 hours before his words are put to the test.
So far, only 12 counties have voted for the Constitutional Amendment Bill 2020, of which, only one has rejected it, that being Baringo. The rest have approved, with quite a number, including Nairobi and Laikipia, approving unanimously. As per the constitution, 24 counties need to pass the bill, for it to move to the next stage, which is that of the National Assembly.
This provision informs why Raila was specific with the figure 13, as that’s the number of votes needed to add to the 11 already done.
So far, none of either DP Ruto’s, or president Kenyatta’s strongholds have voted, with the results expected to be a pointer at the strength that each wields over his constituency.