Why Firing Duale Is A Big Blunder From Uhuru

After a decade plus years in elective politics, Garissa Township MP Aden Barre Duale has become one of the most influential politicians in the former North Eastern Province, on the national stage and within the Horn of Africa region.

With sway within Muslim circles and pastoralist tribes especially in NEP, Upper Eastern and Tana North, whose interests he has championed, Duale has not only matched but also dwarfed the influence his father-in-law Gen (rtd) Mahmoud Mohamed and his brother Hussein Maalim Mohamed wielded in the Moi regime.

His status within Kenya’s politics and growing support base outside his home region has made Mr Duale a much-sought-after contemporary

The MP’s support for religious causes has cultivated support among the clergy.

“Many people want him to retain his seat even though some say that if he loses it, any other Kenyan outside North Eastern should occupy it because it is not hereditary to the region,” Mr Nurdin Elmoge, a journalist and Wajir-based political analyst, said.

Critics dismiss him as a symbol of powerful clan/business interests in his native Garissa county, but also admit, according to Nairobi-based analyst Hussein Issa, that through his own political shrewdness, Duale has come out of the shadow of his initial mentors and benefactors to “create his own persona and represent the collective aspirations of Kenya’s Somali so much that the manner in which he’s removed from his current seat could determine the future of the détente between the long marginalized tribe and the Kenyan state.”

Mr Issa believes Mr Duale is in the “fight of his political life and requires all shades of pastoralist, Muslim and Somali opinion to his side”, adding that apart from resentment furled by his close ties to DP William Ruto, a tiny faction within Jubilee is exploiting the current crisis to “cut to size a rising star from North Eastern to solve old scores.”

Mr Issa adds that like all important politicians, Duale has made mistakes and fueled resentment against himself through belligerent attacks on critics by using language that often made him appear arrogant and overbearing.

Critics and admirers describe Mr Duale as an industrious man, an effective and calculating political tactician and pugilist that any politician would love to have in his corner. Under a united Jubilee, he was its most dependable enforcer who frustrated opposition propaganda and plots.

“It’s an honour for me to have occupied this office for seven years as the first Leader of Majority under the 2010 Constitution,” he told is quoted to have said yesterday.

Within the Horn of Africa, Mr Duale is a leading architect of Kenya’s foreign policy on Somalia. He has backed Jubbaland leader Mohamed Islam Madobe’s and Kenya’s claims to the territorial sea also claimed by Somalia. Duale echoes the best interests of the Kenyan state, against the wishes of Somalia’s President Mohamed Farmajo and his Kenyan acolytes.

Duale has not always been the traditional sycophant singing regime praises. In 2015, his appeal among the Somali people soared after he publicly, rebuked the Jubilee regime for forcing many, mostly ethnic Somalis into “concentration camps” at Kasarani Stadium.

At that time, the state had launched a so called Usalama Watch, to weed out illegal residents in the wake of several terrorist attacks in Kenya blamed on Somalia-based Al-Shabaab.

The fate of Duale is now a wait and see after President Kenyatta made the final call for his removal.

MP Amos Kimunya (Kipipiri) has taken his place.

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